See how that Bitcoin crossing $104k makes you feel—it’s fantastic, isn’t it? Particularly after several months of mucking about sideways and the proverbial crypto winter still echoing in the canyons. Photo by Ryan McBeth on Unsplash. We've seen this movie before. So it’s not whether Bitcoin is going to make new highs, but rather who the force behind it is. And more importantly, why?

The headlines scream "record wallet growth!" 344,620 new wallets in a single day. That's a lot of new faces. Santiment's data confirms the retail rush. So are these investors experienced investors? Or are they only interested because they’re the types of folks who would have started investing after reading the latest get-rich-quick TikTok? Are we seeing true adoption, or are we just seeing a model FOMO on a déjà vu all over again, courtesy of the ghosts of bull runs’ past?

Is History About To Repeat?

Think back to the dot-com boom. Remember the frenzy? All of us rushing into dot-coms, without regard to fundamentals, lured by the seductive siren song of limitless wealth? Pets.com anyone? Because Bitcoin is limited in supply, it is incredibly attractive. Its natural volatility can just as easily create deadly risks for those people who are unfamiliar. The seduction of easy money is a hell of a drug and for many, Bitcoin is the current high.

Like the rapid wallet creation mentioned in the news, that is a sign of new retail inflows, at least historically. And history tells us that the retail investor tends to be the last one to join the party. They’re the first to go under, often at a substantial loss. Is this time different? Maybe. But "maybe" isn't a sound investment strategy.

Bitcoin’s market cap overtaking Amazon’s, now that’s a great headline. Let's be real, comparing a decentralized digital asset to one of the world's largest and most diversified companies is like comparing apples to spaceships. The first one delivers tangible, essential infrastructure and services to billions—not millions—every single day. One of them continues to grow fat off its illusion of scarcity and future promise.

Who Truly Benefits From This Rally?

Here's where my concern lies. So who wins out from these FOMO-fueled retail rallies? It’s the unsuspecting individual who bets their life savings on a long shot at quadrupling their investment over a short period of time. It’s the whales, the early adopters, the ones that got in when Bitcoin was a few pennies. This way, they can ride these waves without participating, cashing out at the top and leaving the retail investors holding the bag.

This isn't about hating on Bitcoin. Truth to be told, I’m a blockchain skeptic and I’ve been pretty vocal about it. So am I – though I happen to care deeply about responsible investing and protecting vulnerable investors. This absence of regulatory oversight on crypto has given way to trading related to rampant speculation at best and outright market manipulation at worst. Just take a look at the proof of that in the recent meme coin crazes. It’s there behind the pump-and-dump schemes and those unexpected, mysterious price spikes.

What's the social impact here? Are we really lifting people up? Or are we simply creating another infrastructure that allows the wealthy to continue to get wealthier and everybody else to be left behind?

Beyond The Hype: Real Adoption?

So, what would real adoption look like? It needs to be more than just the increased cost. Bitcoin functions and is widely used as a medium of exchange. This goes beyond it being a store of value. It encourages financial inclusion. It’s as much about having a more diverse and stable investor base, rather than a transient wave of speculators primarily chasing quick profits. It's about addressing the environmental concerns surrounding Bitcoin mining and transitioning to more sustainable practices. It’s responsible innovation that puts all of the people involved, not just their profit centers, first.

Here are a few signs to look for that might indicate this time is different:

  • Increased Institutional Investment (Long-Term): Not just hedge funds looking for a quick buck, but pension funds and endowments making strategic, long-term investments.
  • Greater Regulatory Clarity: Clear rules and regulations that protect investors and prevent manipulation.
  • Wider Adoption by Businesses: More companies accepting Bitcoin as payment for goods and services.
  • Lower Volatility: A more stable price that reduces the risk for everyday users.
  • Sustainable Mining Practices: A shift towards renewable energy sources for Bitcoin mining.

The $104,000 figure is a big deal, to be sure. The on-chain metrics growth is exciting. The short squeeze was a spectacle. Let’s not succumb to hype and over-promise. Let's ask ourselves: Is this surge building a sustainable future for Bitcoin, or is it just another bubble waiting to burst? Are we truly achieving financial empowerment and empowerment of any kind, or are we simply opening up new avenues to prey upon people’s vulnerabilities? I believe the answer is much more complex than the click bait headlines make it out to be. It’s a question every one of us should be asking ourselves.